Stock Assessment News for Lingcod, Vermilion Rockfish and California Halibut
We have completed some stock assessment reviews and I’ll give you a brief overview of the results.
Lingcod
The lingcod stock south of 40° 10’ N latitude (Cape Mendocino) has improved in stock status to just under the PFMC’s Ttarget (40%) at 39% B/o (unfished biomass). Though barely in under target, I don’t believe it will affect our fisheries too much. We should anticipate both trip limits and bag limits to remain nearly status quo to where we are now for this upcoming 2023/2024 Biennial Management cycle.
Vermillion/Sunset Rockfish
We finished reviewing this stock assessment Friday. There were four separate area assessments:
- Southern CA (south of 34° 27’)
- Northern CA (34° 27’ north to 42° 00’)
- Oregon
- Washington
Southern California
The Southern California stock assessment ended up OK. Not great by any means with an estimated depletion value at 48% B/o. But nowhere near overfished so guess that’s good as this is one stock we do not ever want to see get to that point. This was one of the more data rich assessments we conducted during this year’s assessment cycle with the Harm’s H & L survey contributing a lot of that data.
One thing I saw in the data is sort of troubling. In the last 6 years, it appears we have exceeded the OFL (overfishing limit) several times. The recreational sector’s catches may have nearly doubled the OFL all by itself a couple of those years. The fact that we are not declaring the stock overfished goes to how strong the productivity of vermilion has been during that time frame. From what I saw in the Decision’s table that will accompany the final assessment we will use for management, south of Conception will be managing to an ACL of roughly 140 mt in 2023. Compare that to an average of about 210 mt average annual catch and that is where I see potential problems ahead. That would represent a nearly 30% reduction in take from status quo. I believe this reduced ACL is probably related to the overages in the OFL over time.
Some things to consider before we hit the panic button. CDFW just implemented a 5 fish vermilion bag limit for the recreational fleet, and we still don’t know where those catch numbers are going to land in 2021. It is also going to get interesting to see where the Council goes with regards to the question of whether to leave vermilion in the minor shelf rockfish complex or remove it to be managed separately as a vermilion specific HG (harvest guideline). Leaving vermilion in the shelf complex would allow more flexibility to management as the vermilion OFL would be a contributing number to the overall minor shelf complex OFL and not necessarily managed separately. I believe CDFW will support leaving it in the complex. NMFS may not. One thing in our favor is that we usually don’t put a stock in a species-specific HG unless it was deemed to be under Target and in precautionary management. This topic is likely to get a whole bunch of discussion as we move forward.
Northern California
The northern California vermilion assessment came out in better shape than going in. The Panel adopted a new base model for the assessment and that proved important as the stock went from below Ttarget of 38% B/o in the draft base to above Ttarget at 43% B/o. in the final base. This assessment was a bit more data poor than the south and will be deemed to be a Category 2 for management. North of Conception will be managing to an ACL of roughly 135 mt in 2023. The recent catches have been averaging roughly 230 mt so that is an even sharper reduction in take allowance than suggested in the south, nearly a 40% reduction. Again, we will need to pay close attention to the Council debate on whether to keep the vermilion in the minor shelf complex or pull it out for separate management.
Vermilion ended up near 60% B/o in Oregon which should be no surprise as nobody fishes for them there.
Washington came in around 42% as it appeared some catch is taken by the tribes up around the Olympic peninsula and the fishery is bit more depleted.
California Halibut
This isn’t a critter we deal with in the Council process, but a couple fishermen had asked me to take a look at the assessment, so I did.
South of Point Conception
The CDFW assessment suggests the stock is depleted to around 14% B/o which is dangerously close to being deemed overfished. Flatfish Harvest Control Rules differ from groundfish where groundfish are determined overfished at 25% of unfished biomass whereas flatfish are overfished at 12.5% of unfished. This is mainly because flatfish tend to be more productive stocks than groundfish and rebuild much quicker. So, it is close but not quite there. What CDFW plans to do with this I cannot tell you yet. There are CDFW webinars scheduled for August 12th for recreational folks, September 9th for commercial folks. I will probably attend the recreational webinar as the September one will be held during a Council meeting. I’m very curious to where the CDFW may go with this for management. I know the scientists that were on the assessment review panel quite well and they are very sharp.
North of Point Conception
The halibut stock north of Conception appears to be in great shape. It appears they have had a lot of strong recruitment into the fishery since 1999. There wasn’t a depletion number referenced. One of the models I looked at suggested the stock status is near original unfished biomass which his unusual but not unheard of for a flatfish.