Just finished up the November PFMC meeting on Monday evening. I will briefly update you on the issues pertaining to groundfish for the Conception management area. It was ugly, so if you don’t want to ruin your holiday weekend, I’d suggest waiting to read this until next week.
Adopt Stock Assessments for 2023/2024 Management
The Council finally adopted the California Copper and Quillback rockfish stock assessments to be used for management in 2023. This was after further evaluation and analysis undertaken by the Scientific and Statistical Committee and Stock Assessment Team at the September “mop-up” review panel. These current “Data Moderate” assessments are considered the “best scientific information available” per the terms of reference for these types of assessments. However, fishery participants continue to believe that these assessments do not accurately reflect what fishermen are experiencing. Those of us that fish for rockfish in the Point Conception region believe there are significant inconsistencies in the model data trends that suggest recent declines in copper rockfish populations. This is not at all consistent with population trends we have observed in many other rockfish stocks that have been assessed in Conception in recent years such as cowcod, bocaccio, chilipepper rockfish, and blackgill rockfish.
As to Quillback rockfish, the data suggests there has been little to no catch in our region historically so probably won’t impact management. Folks north of Monterey are likely to see significant restrictions on their nearshore fisheries in 2023, something I will address later in this report.
Both the GAP and Council continue to believe there should be immediate action taken to have California Copper rockfish and Quillback rockfish in California assessed as full benchmark assessments as soon as possible, targeting the 2023 assessment cycle. We believe incorporation of comprehensive age data and fishery-dependent indices in a full assessment is warranted given the serious fishery impacts that will likely ensue under rebuilding plans for Copper and Quillback rockfishes. Quillback will be declared overfished and under a rebuilding plan with Tmax up near 40 years to rebuild. Not pretty at all for our northern California fishermen! Due to a procedural move where the Council combined both California Copper assessments into a single statewide assessment, Copper south of Pt. Conception will be managed to a rebuilding plan in 2023 but will NOT have been officially declared overfished. Bad in the short term for us management wise south of Pt. Conception but good longer term for when Copper is reassessed in 2023 and we hopefully get a more positive result suggesting the stock is above MSST of 25% (not overfished).
In Season Adjustments for 2022
Due to the negative results from the Copper and Quillback rockfish stock assessments, CDFW recommended that we take immediate action through the in season process to reduce catch next year leading up to the 2023 season. The hope is that we can reduce mortality enough to buffer what we know will be harsh rebuilding management measures we will need in 2023 and beyond.
CA Copper rockfish for 2022
- Implement a new statewide recreational 1-fish copper rockfish sub-bag limit within the 10-fish daily RCG bag
- Implement a 75 /2 months sub-trip limit to the 2,000 lbs./2-month Minor Nearshore Rockfish north of 40°10’ N latitude.
- Implement a 75 /2 months sub-trip limit to the 2,000 lbs./2-month Deeper Nearshore trip limits south of 40°10’ N latitude.
CA Vermilion rockfish for 2022
- Reduce the vermilion rockfish 5-fish sub-bag limit to 4-fish within the 10-fish daily RCG bag limit within the recreational fishery
You will note the severe Copper bag limit reductions for the sport fleet and the very small trip limits for commercial. Please also note the Vermilion bag reduction for sport but no reductions for commercial trip limits in 2022. Folks, these reductions very likely will not get us all the way through 2022 and I fear another in season action will be necessary sometime next year to either reduce or close the fisheries, particularly vermilion rockfish. The data suggests we exceeded the Vermilion ACL this year in September and that was with a 5 fish bag limit for the sports. My best guess is we probably run up against the ACL somewhere around October next year. I don’t know if CDFW or NMFS will push for total closure at that time but please keep it in mind and don’t be shocked if or when that occurs. Also bear in mind that these in season actions being taken for 2022 are nowhere near as restrictive as the bag/trip limits we will see in 2023!!
2023/2024 Management Measures
CDFW will be analyzing various management measures over the winter that we will likely need for management to keep within the OFL’s and ACL’s adopted for the 2023/2024 fishing season. Copper rockfish will have an ACL of approximately 8 mt for the south of Conception area in 2023. That is nowhere close to even being enough for bycatch in our fisheries here in the south! I would anticipate a recreational bag limit of zero and commercial trip limits near zero. What is worse is that zero retention still projects out to mortality around 56 mt in bycatch discard!!! That suggests we will be looking at additional nearshore seasonal closures and/or nearshore RCA restrictions to go with zero Copper retention in 2023. CDFW admitted in Council discussion under this item that these were possible scenarios we are facing.
Further complicating matters is the fact we must reduce Vermilion take substantially in 2023 as well. With status quo bag/trip limits we have been unable to stay within the harvest guideline (HG) this year and you should understand that we are looking at approximately 33% reductions in the HG in 2023 from where we are now. I expect greatly reduced bag limits for recreational in 2023 or perhaps a scenario with time off the water with a larger bag limit. Commercial is likely to see reduced trip limits and new RCA restrictions may need to be considered. One thing working slightly in our favor is that neither NMFS nor CDFW is pushing for removing vermilion from the shelf rockfish complex which may allow for some flexibility in catch.
Folks north of Conception will be pushing for usage of vertical line gears with no bottom contact within the RCA to target bocaccio, chilipeppers, yellowtail rockfish and widow rockfish to offset the likely restrictions coming forward for nearshore fisheries. Folks south of Conception may well be forced to fish those same type of vertical gears out on the deeper shelf out to the 100 fathom RCA as well.
There are still big questions to enforceability of the vertical gears within the RCA to the north. Those concerns will need to be worked out and I don’t know if that can be done in time for implementation in 2023. There are also issues with limited entry usage of those same vertical gears that need to be worked out as by law the gears will be considered open access gears thus the limited entry must fish to the open access trip limits. Any access into the RCA will necessitate declarations to NMFS on a trip-by-trip basis as well.
The Cowcod Conservation Area (CCA) reopening was removed from the Specs package and added to the Non-Trawl Sector Area Management package which is moving separately. It was suggested by NMFS representatives that the CCA reopening may get done sooner through this process than in Specs. A potential implementation date was suggested to be January 1, 2024. Merit McRea and I were directed by CDFW to work with Oceana representatives as well as other environmental groups to get something done that would open some fishing area while also protecting corals and sponges within the current CCA. We’ve had some meetings already with more scheduled soon. My focus is on re-opening the slope fisheries within the CCA since it has become painfully obvious that neither NMFS nor CDFW plans on allowing any Cowcod retention either inside or outside the CCA, at least in the near term.
One last item. NMFS has decided to implement fixed gear logbooks with intentions on getting the deal done in time for January 1, 2023, in line with Specs. These fixed gear logbooks were approved by the Council some 11 years ago but are just now coming to fruition. I suspect the humpback entanglement issues with pot gear along with concerns of albatross interactions has pushed the narrative. I have a meeting with NMFS ESA reps on Monday to discuss the logbook topic further. I’ll let you guys know what they are thinking.